최신자료
Inflation to Remain Above Target in 2025
Today’s ONS numbers indicate that annual inflation recorded 2.8 per cent in February 2025, after its temporary rise to 3.0 per cent in January amidst base effects from last year.
We forecast inflation to remain above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target in 2025 given increased public spending, persistent wage growth and global trade fragmentation.
Services inflation recorded 5.0 per cent in February driven by strong pay growth, keeping core inflation elevated at 3.5 per cent.
Our underlying inflation measure (which excludes 5 per cent of the highest and lowest price changes to eliminate volatility) recorded 1.4 per cent. This figure remaining low is a positive indication, suggesting that headline inflation figure is being driven by large price increases in a few sectors, with inflation rates broadly falling for most items.
Moving forward, we think interest rates will remain higher for longer than previously anticipated and we expect only one more 25 basis point rate cut in 2025.
We forecast inflation to remain above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target in 2025 given increased public spending, persistent wage growth and global trade fragmentation.
Services inflation recorded 5.0 per cent in February driven by strong pay growth, keeping core inflation elevated at 3.5 per cent.
Our underlying inflation measure (which excludes 5 per cent of the highest and lowest price changes to eliminate volatility) recorded 1.4 per cent. This figure remaining low is a positive indication, suggesting that headline inflation figure is being driven by large price increases in a few sectors, with inflation rates broadly falling for most items.
Moving forward, we think interest rates will remain higher for longer than previously anticipated and we expect only one more 25 basis point rate cut in 2025.
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