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Monetary policy, central bank information, and bank lending: Evidence from German banks

Deutsche Bundesbank

2025.03.24

There is long-standing evidence that monetary policy affects bank loan supply and the real economy through a bank-lending channel. Yet, when central banks announce a policy rate decision, they also reveal information about their assessment of economic conditions. Recent studies show that the non-monetary information contained in monetary policy announcements has macroeconomic implications that are distinct from the conventional effects of monetary policy. The possible presence of information effects raises the following questions: First, how do monetary policy shocks stripped of information about economic fundamentals affect bank lending? Second, does non-monetary information have autonomous effects on bank lending?
We obtain two main findings. First, a conventional tightening in the policy rate leads to a significant decrease in the volume of bank loans to non-financial corporations. In line with the bank-lending channel of monetary policy, the decrease is stronger for relatively small banks with less liquid balance sheets. Second, we find that a policy rate tightening due to an information shock leads to a significant increase in the volume of non-financial business loans. The increase is stronger for relatively small banks with more liquid balance sheets. These results are robust to how we measure exogenous variation in monetary policy and central bank information, as well as to various choices of measurement, sample composition, statistical inference, and model specification. Our results imply, on the one hand, they imply that a lending channel of monetary policy transmission is operational in the largest economy of the euro area. On the other hand, they empirically corroborate earlier theoretical work showing that central bank information shocks are consistent with news about the state of financial conditions.

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